Work and AI: Global Impacts and Future Prospects | Festina Lente - Your leading source of AI news | Turtles AI

AI is changing the world of work, with the expected impact on 60 million jobs between the United States and Mexico in the short term. Lower-skilled workers and women are among the most vulnerable groups. Coordinated action to mitigate the consequences is crucial.

Key points:

• Immediate impact on millions of jobs: within a year, more than 43 million jobs in the U.S. and 16 million in Mexico will be affected by automation, escalating over the next decade.
• Women and low-skilled workers at greater risk: women, especially in the administrative and service sectors, and less-trained workers will be more vulnerable to replacement by AI.
• Redistribution of job opportunities: despite automation, new occupations can be created, but require massive investment in education and retraining.
• Need for swift action and targeted policies: recommendations for educational programs, strengthened social security, and attention to inequality.

The global labor market is set to undergo a profound transformation due to AI, a technology that is accelerating its spread across various sectors. According to a recent study by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), within a year some 60 million jobs between the United States and Mexico will be affected by this technological revolution. Specifically, the United States will see an impact on 43 million occupations, while in Mexico the number will be about 16 million. However, this represents only the beginning of a process that will continue to accelerate: in fact, it is estimated that in the next five years the number of jobs involved will rise to 60 million in the United States and 22 million in Mexico, and then reach 70 million and 26 million, respectively, within the decade.

The forecasts do not necessarily indicate a direct loss of jobs, but rather an alteration in the tasks and skills required. This change, on a scale comparable to the industrial revolution of the 19th century, requires rapid and strategic adaptation. New technologies will not only revolutionize productive sectors, but also reshape the very structure of employment, leading to the disappearance of some occupations and the creation of new job opportunities. 

The “AI-generated occupational exposure index” developed by the IDB analyzed more than 750 occupations based on a time scale covering one, five and 10 years. This tool, based on sophisticated data sets, provides a detailed view of which sectors and categories of workers will be most affected. Among the most vulnerable categories, the study shows that women will be disproportionately affected compared to men, particularly those employed in sectors such as administrative support, services and office work. In the United States and Mexico, an estimated 40 percent of women will be affected by automation compared to 38 percent of men. This disparity, coupled with the nature of the roles most commonly held by women, raises crucial questions about gender equality policies in the context of technological transformation.

Lower-skilled and lower-educated workers are among the most vulnerable to automation, particularly those who perform repetitive or low-value-added tasks. In the United States, those who earn the least will be the most exposed, while in Mexico, the middle and working class will face significant transformation. Economic inequality is also likely to be magnified by this technological revolution, which is why early action to develop inclusive strategies is critical. 

Some sectors will be more affected than others. Professions such as telephone operators, telemarketers, and credit evaluators are particularly at risk, with estimates predicting that more than 90 percent of workers in these sectors will be replaced by automation. On the other hand, professions related to education, sports, or law enforcement seem more resilient, as they require skills and abilities that are difficult to replicate by AI.

The study’s proposed solution is based on a massive investment in education and retraining. The emphasis is on the importance of developing skills complementary to automation, such as critical thinking, creativity and emotional intelligence. Only through the continuous upgrading of workers will it be possible to prevent AI from becoming a factor of exclusion rather than inclusion. 

In addition, strong government efforts are needed to strengthen social safety nets by offering insurance and subsidies to help workers during the transition to a new work reality. Support for small businesses and the development of ethical regulation for the use of AI will be equally crucial.

Finally, one of the most innovative aspects of the index is the ability to differentiate between tasks within the same profession. For example, within the medical field, a radiologist could be more easily replaced by an algorithm than a psychologist or nurse, demonstrating how not all tasks within a profession are vulnerable in the same way. This suggests that, even within the most at-risk fields, there will be areas where human labor will continue to play a central role.

Addressing this momentous transformation will require adapting educational programs by incorporating AI as a key subject in school curricula. The speed with which automation will change the labor market requires decisive and timely action by governments and companies in order to avoid increased inequality and turn this technology shock into an opportunity for inclusive and sustainable growth.

The challenges posed by AI are immense, but with coordinated action and strategic vision, humanity has the potential to turn this revolution into an opportunity for a better future.

Source: Bid | El Pais